She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. Logistically, its a disaster. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine By Cara Ding. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. I am under that impression. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. Im not happy with the way things are now. . She shook her head at the high price of gas. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. March 1, 2023 8:28 PM PT. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. In addition to Florida Gov. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Its just stupid, she said. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. I think thats what the world needed. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? People need to get a job, get out and work. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. 'I Should Start Voting'. We dont want it, she said. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. A lot of people think things are. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. What happened to our Democratic Party? Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. SACRAMENTO . Thus it would appear that bellwether. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. It was easy. He is his own worst enemy.. I think its very political right now, honestly. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. This claim is basically absurd. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Theres significant variability among them, though. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. That is, until this year. We were as far down to five cooks last year. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote.
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